Base States: States that the results of the election is definite to very likely.
Leaning States: States leaning in one direction or the other and could change.
Toss-Up States: States that the results are unknown and could go either way.
Important: Some red states are Obama base states now by these projections. They are not considered toss-ups here but are added in with the rest of the Obama base state numbers.
Updated October 19th, 8:57 PM EST
| Base states include leaners unless noted | Rasm | Rasm only base | CNN | EP * | RCP | RCP only base | RCP no tossups | MSNBC | MSNBC only base | CQ Politics | 538 | Zogby | FL HQ ** | FL HQ - Aug 2004 ** Kerry shown as Obama | Rasm Oct 2004 Kerry shown as Obama |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base EV (Obama-McCain) | 300-174 | 260-163 | 277-174 | 273-169 | 386-155 | 249-140 | 364-174 | 264-163 | 175-155 | 311-174 | 349-174 | 273-163 | 273-169 | 198-187 | 186-222 |
| Obama lead in base | 126 | 97 | 103 | 104 | 131 | 109 | 190 | 101 | 20 | 137 | 175 | 110 | 104 | 11 | -36 |
| % | 63.3% - 36.7% | 61.5% - 38.5% | 61.4% - 38.6% | 61.8% - 38.2% | 64.9% - 35.1% | 64.0% - 36.0% | 67.7% - 32.3% | 61.8% - 38.2% | 53.0% - 47.0% | 64.1% - 35.9% | 66.7% - 33.3% | 62.6 - 37.4% | 61.8% - 31.2% | 51.4% - 48.6% | 45.6% - 54.4% |
| Obama needs to win | 0 (-30) | 10 | 0 (-7) | 0 (-3) | 0 (-16) | 21 | 0 (-94) | 6 | 95 | 0 (-41) | 0 (-79) | 0 (-3) | 0 (-3) | 72 | 84 |
| Total Toss-up % | 11.9% | 21.4% | 16.2% | 17.8% | 18% | 27.7% | 0% | 20.6% | 38.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 19% | 17.8% | 28.4% | 24.2% |
| Red state toss-ups | 64 | 111 | 87 | 96 | 97 | 139 | 0 (112 flipped) | 111 | 131 | 49 | 15 | 98 | 96 | 91 | 56 |
| Blue state toss-ups | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 (0 flipped) | 0 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 62 | 74 |
| Toss-up Difference (EV), Red state % of Blue state | Red +64 (All Red) | Red +107 2775% | Red +87 (All Red) | Red +96 (All Red) | Red +95 (All Red) | Red +129 1390% | (Red +112) - | Red +111 (All Red) | Red +54 170% | Red +45 1,225% | Red +15 (All Red) | Red +94 2450% | Red +96 (All Red) | Red +29 147% | Blue +18 76% |
| Red state toss-up % of Total | 100% | 96.5% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93.3% | - | 100% | 63% | 92.5% | 100% | 96.1% | 100% | 59.5% | 43.1% |
I noticed from comparing the former election to the current election that Kerry had trouble keeping blue states and had trouble winning the red states. At this point, Obama doesn't have as big of problem with this. He doesn't need to spend quite as many resources on keeping blue states blue and can use them elsewhere, and has shown more of a success in being competitive in some red states. For Obama, the higher the percentage of red states compared to EV needed shows more room to work with to win the election and more states that McCain has to work to defend.
It should be noted too that the blue states Kerry was looking to keep blue was 268 electoral votes in 2000. The total electoral value of the states Gore won went down and the red states Bush won went up in value. I think this was due to reallocating the EV per state by updated population estimates or the census. The 268 was only worth 260 in 2004. Iowa & New Mexico were blue and New Hampshire was red.
More red states that are toss-ups and less blue states that are toss-ups makes Obama's chance's greater to win.
Base states are Solid/Likely states. No Toss-up states mean all states are considered a solid win for a candidate. In this one, flipped means how many electoral votes changes over from red to blue and vice versa since this is a total election projection with no leaners or toss-ups. In the table above, when it says "base states only", leaners aren't included with Base states, they are included with the toss-ups.